Amazon’s Next Big Thing: Its Own Smartphones
By · CommentsFiled under: Technology, Microsoft, Nokia, Research In Motion, Apple, Amazon.com, Stocks in the News
When it comes to gadgetry, Amazon.com (AMZN) has become an surprising rock star.
When it rolled out the original Kindle in 2007, bibliophiles argued that cold screens would never replace the warmth of curling up to a good book. Then Amazon went on to sell millions of e-readers.
When it turned its attention to full-featured tablets, no one had any luck competing against Apple's (AAPL) iPad. Sales tracker NPD Group reports that tablet sales in this country from January through October amounted to a mere 1.2 million non-iPad units. Then came this month's Kindle Fire. Orders have been so brisk that suppliers are telling Taiwan's Digitimes that the e-tailer has bumped its production order to a whopping 5 million units.
With skeptic-thumping results like that, who would doubt Amazon's next gadget endeavor?
What's that? Amazon may be branching out into smartphones next year? Wow.
Jeff Bezos Calling
Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney suggests that Amazon may roll out its own wireless handset in time for next year's holiday shopping season.
This isn't just a stock analyst dreaming out loud or connecting the logical dots. Mahaney's head-turning prediction comes after conducting supply chain channel checks in Asia. Component makers can be pretty chatty when they're off the record, so there's some serious weight here.
This doesn't mean that consumers will get an Amazon smartphone. A year is a long time, and prototypes being produced now can be easily dismissed later. Market conditions may change. Amazon may decide to move in an entirely different direction. However, for now it does seem like it will in fact happen.
An Amazon smartphone will be interesting, but it won't be a slam dunk.
Handing It to the Handsets
It isn't easy to be in the wireless market these days.
Research In Motion (RIMM) has 70 million active BlackBerry accounts, yet analysts see it as a loser. Nokia (NOK) remains the global leader, yet its future smartphone prospects are so dicey that it agreed to champion Microsoft's (MSFT) mobile operating system instead of its own in exchange for a tidy sum of money.
If it's not Apple's iOS or Google's (GOOG) Android, a smartphone is pretty much toast these days.
Thankfully an Amazon smartphone would be fueled by a modified version of Android. It's the approach that Amazon took with the Kindle Fire, so why not?
In fact, an Amazon smartphone would probably look and feel a lot like a miniature Kindle Fire, leaning on Android apps, Amazon's proprietary Silk Web browser, and the online retailer's rich ecosystem serving up books, movies, music, and games digitally.
Serving Two Masters
Amazon sells plenty of wireless devices right now. In fact, the virtual store operator turned heads this holiday shopping season by offering all of its non-iPhone smartphones at $0.01 each with two-year wireless contracts through Cyber Monday.
What will happen next year, when Amazon's promoting its Ama-phone, Kindle Phone, or whatever it will be called on its front page? Will other manufacturers feel jilted?
Probably not. Amazon, after all, sells other e-readers and tablets. Amazon knows that it will never be the only flavor even among its own shoppers.
Amazon has too much at stake at this point not to take the next evolutionary step in its gadgetry rollouts.
Amazon laptops or smart TVs may make sense down the line, but a smartphone is the clear companion to the new Kindle Fire and perhaps even the original Kindle e-reader, though getting folks to enjoy long-form literature on a small phone screen will be a challenge.
Another meaty issue is if Amazon's phone will debut on a single carrier -- the way that the iPhone did in 2007 -- or if it aims for broader wireless coverage. The no-brainer answer would be to shoot for all major carriers, but there's always the possibility that it will snag sweet terms with a single carrier willing to pay up for exclusivity.
The Best Reason to Take Amazon Seriously
When pros cracked open the Kindle Fire earlier this month, they came to the conclusion that its components cost more than its $199 price tag. How can Amazon sell tablets at a loss, something even Apple would never dream of doing? It plans to make back the loss -- and then some -- though digital purchases. Obviously, an Amazon phone will plug right into Amazon's digital storefront.
Amazon has already taken the revolutionary step of selling a cheaper Kindle e-reader model to folks willing to accept ads -- another way for it to subsidize the price of a phone before we even get to the meaty wireless carrier subsidies. In short, Amazon can give smartphone shoppers the most bang for their buck because it can monetize its gadgets in ways that traditional handset manufacturers can't.
Amazon's going to be a winner in this space. Good luck wagering otherwise: History is not on the side of skeptics here.
Longtime Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz does not own shares in any stocks in this article, though he does own a Kindle Fire and an iPad. The Motley Fool owns shares of Google, Microsoft, and Apple. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Apple, Google, Amazon.com, and Microsoft. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended creating a bull call spread position in Microsoft. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended creating a bull call spread position in Apple.
Nokia Smartphones Finally Attracting Some App Love
By · CommentsFiled under: Technology, Google , Microsoft, Nokia, Research In Motion, Apple, AT&T
Nokia (NOK) smartphone users starving for app extras may finally get some new toys for their handsets. Developers who previously stuck to creating apps for Apple's (AAPL) iOS and Google's (GOOG) Android mobile devices are probably going to branch out.
Developers appear poised to add a third mobile operating system platform to their efforts, according to a recent survey by Appcelerator and IDC, thanks to Nokia's bold partnership with Microsoft (MSFT) earlier this year to use Windows Phone 7 on its smartphone line-up and the introduction of its sleek Lumia 800 Windows smartphone eight months later.
Yes, We'll Do Windows, Say Developers
Of the 2,160 Appcelerator developers surveyed, 38% said they were "very interested" in developing on the Windows Phone 7 platform, an increase of eight points and the highest level of interest for the Redmond giant ever, according to the report. Meanwhile, Microsoft's mobile rival Research In Motion (RIMM) saw developer interest in its BlackBerry OS fall seven points to 21%.
When the survey drilled deeper into developers' interest in Windows Phone 7 compared with a year ago, the report found:
"A plurality (48%) are saying it is the Microsoft/Nokia partnership. Nokia also received high marks for its new Lumia Windows Phone 7 smartphone announcement last month. Twenty-eight percent of developers said they are 'very interested' in developing for the device. This is more than double the interest in Nokia's own Symbian and MeeGo OSes since Appcelerator began reporting mobile platform interest in January 2010."
With those figures, Windows Phone 7 jumped over the BlackBerry OS to land a decisive No. 3 spot among developers, behind Apple's iOS and Google's Android, according to the report.
New Game for Nokia
Over the years, Nokia has seen its smartphone market share shrink from the mid-to-high-40% range to 27.1% in the third quarter, according to IDC figures. The decline began in 2008 and by 2009 the popularity of the iPhone and Android devices took hold in a big way, says Scott Ellison, vice president of mobile and connected consumer platforms for IDC.
Of course, developers followed, especially those fed up with Nokia's reputation for being slow to launch new iterations of its phones and its "creaky" Symbian OS.
Nokia has tried enticing developers. Earlier this year, for example, Nokia and AT&T (T) held a "Calling All Innovators" contest, offering $10 million in prizes to winning apps and mobile games developers who focused their software on North American consumers.
The recent survey results indicate that developers are turning around on their views of the company, and with any luck, Nokia's fortunes and consumer attraction will follow.
What It Means for Nokia Users
As a result of the No. 3 spot, Nokia smartphone users should expect more consumer-centric apps for their devices in the near future, says Ellison. "Most mobile developers work in two platforms but usually no more than four," Ellison said.
Prior to landing the No. 3 spot among developers, Nokia was often in a neck-in-neck battle with Research In Motion's BlackBerry OS or Microsoft's Windows Phone, before it partnered with the software giant. In announcing its deal with Microsoft earlier this year, Nokia said it would step away from its longtime use of its Symbian operating system.
And while Microsoft has a reputation of attracting developers who focus more on business-related apps, Ellison believes Nokia's Windows Phone 7 devices will easily attract developers interested in consumer-focused apps, such as games, social-networking, or e-commerce applications. The survey was comprised of 63.8% consumer apps developers and 36.2% business-related developers.
Ellison notes that Nokia is also keenly interested in growing its consumer presence and is gunning for the same customers who would otherwise purchase an iPhone or Android device. A wide variety of apps can help push a smartphone sale, says Ellison, who ranks the availability of desired apps as the third top reason a consumer may select a particular phone.
Zynga, for example, does not currently have a version of its wildly popular FarmVille game that supports the Windows Phone 7 platform. It does, however, make FarmVille versions that support the iPhone, iPad, iPod touch, and various Android devices, such as Motorola Mobility's (MMI) Droid X.
Whether Nokia's recent switch to Windows Phone 7 and its Lumia 800 introduction will entice Zynga to rollout a FarmVille version that supports Nokia phones remains to be seen.
Motley Fool contributor Dawn Kawamoto does not own any stock in the companies listed.
Gates Testifies in $1B Lawsuit Against Microsoft
By · CommentsFiled under: Technology, Microsoft
SALT LAKE CITY (AP) - Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows 95 rollout presented the most challenges in the company's history, leading to several last-minute changes to technical features that would no longer support a rival software maker's word processor, Bill Gates testified Monday in a $1 billion antitrust lawsuit filed by the creator of WordPerfect."We worked super hard," the Microsoft co-founder said. "It was the most challenging, trying project we had ever done."
Gates was the first witness to testify Monday as Microsoft lawyers presented their case in the trial that's been ongoing in federal court in Salt Lake City for about a month. He is to return to the stand Tuesday.
Utah-based Novell Inc. sued Microsoft in 2004, claiming the Redmond, Wash., company violated U.S. antitrust laws through its arrangements with other software makers when it launched Windows 95. Novell says it was later forced to sell WordPerfect for a $1.2 billion loss. Novell is now a wholly owned subsidiary of The Attachmate Group, the result of a merger that was completed earlier this year.
Gates said Novell just couldn't deliver a Windows 95 compatible WordPerfect program in time for its rollout, and its own Word program was actually better. He said that by 1994, Microsoft's Word writing program was ranked No. 1 in the market above WordPerfect.
Gates called it an "important win."
He testified later that Microsoft had to dump a technical feature that would have supported WordPerfect because he feared it would crash the operating system.
"We were making trade-offs," he said.
Novell argues that Gates ordered Microsoft engineers to reject WordPerfect as a Windows 95 word processing application because he feared it was too good.
WordPerfect once had nearly 50 percent of the market for computer writing programs, but its share quickly plummeted to less than 10 percent as Microsoft's own office programs took hold.
Microsoft lawyers say Novell's loss of market share was its own doing because the company didn't develop a Windows compatible WordPerfect program until months after the operating system's rollout.
Novell attorney Jeff Johnson has conceded that Microsoft was under no legal obligation to provide advance access to Windows 95 so Novell could prepare a compatible version. Microsoft, however, enticed Novell to work on a version, only to withdraw support months before Windows 95 hit the market, he said.
Microsoft lawyer David Tulchin said Gates decided against installing WordPerfect because it couldn't be made compatible in time for the rollout. He argued that Novell's missed opportunity was its own fault, and that Microsoft had no obligation to give a competitor a leg up.
"Novell never complained to Microsoft," Tulchin said during arguments Friday. "There's nothing in the evidence, no documents."
Johnson maintains Novell was tricked in violation of federal antitrust laws so Microsoft could monopolize the market.
"We got stabbed in the back," he said.
Microsoft's arguments for a dismissal of the case were set to resume Monday afternoon.
Throughout arguments Friday, U.S. District Judge Frederick Motz openly expressed doubts that Novell's claims had merit.
"I don't see why I have to give a product to a competitor so he can beat me," Motz told Novell attorneys.
Gates, a billionaire, began by testifying about Microsoft's history. He was just 19 when he helped found the company. Today, Microsoft is one of the world's largest software makers, with a market value of more than $210 billion.
"We thought everybody would have a personal computer on every desk and in every home," Gates said. "We wanted to be there and be the first."
Is Amazon Prime Preparing for a Price Hike?
By · CommentsFiled under: Technology, Amazon.com, Retail
It may be the best deal in town for active online shoppers. Amazon Prime -- Amazon.com's (AMZN) loyalty shopping club -- charges customers $79 for unlimited two-day shipping of Amazon-warehoused merchandise. The Wall Street Journal is now wondering if Amazon will have to juice up its membership rate given escalating costs as it tacks on digital freebies.
Freebies Galore
Earlier this year, Amazon began offering some of the streaming video content that it typically sells on a piecemeal basis as part of a digital smorgasbord made available to Prime subscribers at no additional cost. The selection isn't all that great, but it was perfect timing for the e-tailer. Once Netflix (NFLX) revealed this summer that it would no longer offer free streaming to its DVD-by-mail subscribers, Amazon suddenly became the best "at no additional cost" buffet this side of Las Vegas.
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates that Amazon has spent roughly $350 million this year in beefing up its Amazon Prime catalog to 13,000.
Amazon also introduced the Kindle Owners' Lending Library last week, offering Prime members free monthly Kindle book rentals. Once again, Amazon is paying publishers for books that it will be using to reward its best customers.
Is this a sustainable model, especially as Amazon tacks on more virtual goodies?
Prime Time in Seattle
Amazon has never told us how many customers are on the program, outside of a passing reference to "millions." The typically chatty Amazon can be pretty secretive that way. The Kindle has been out since 2007, and the e-tailer has yet to reveal its actual sales metrics.
It wouldn't be a shock to learn that Amazon Prime is in fact a loss leader. Amazon can afford to take a small hit there, knowing that it will make that back in the actual sales. However, there may come a point where annual rates will have to inch higher to match Amazon's growing overhead.
The timing of the hike and its actual execution will be important.
Don't Write Off $79 Just Yet
Throw me into the camp of those who believe that Amazon is unlikely to move its Prime pricing higher. It's clear that Amazon's digital outlays are growing in support of the program, but let's think about this logically.
Someone borrowing a Kindle book at no additional cost is someone who won't be taking advantage of free two-day shipping on that book. Someone streaming one of the 13,000 videos -- and counting -- from Amazon's catalog for Prime members may be one fewer person buying DVDs.
In other words, beefing up its online media is a way to get folks relying on fewer physical shipments from Amazon to continue paying $79 a year for membership. It's a brilliant move on Amazon's part, and it's also why Amazon is unlikely to get "millions" of members to begin weighing their purchases if they have to justify a future increase.
As big as Amazon is, the retailer's net sales have grown faster than e-commerce as a whole since the introduction of Amazon Prime. It works. Amazon is unlikely to mess with that pricing model -- for now.
Longtime Motley Fool contributor Rick Munarriz does not own shares in any stocks in this article, except for Netflix. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Amazon.com and Netflix.
Filed under: Technology, Sears Holdings, Wal-Mart Stores, Retail, eBay
Retailers anxious to lull shoppers into a holiday spending daze are debuting a new experiment in simulation: the "real" online store. On Nov. 1, Walmart (WMT) launched two pop-up stores in San Diego and Los Angeles malls, where, instead of stroking the fabric of sweaters and sheets, shoppers can browse Walmart.com on tablet and laptop screens.
Walmart claims that "real" online shopping is convenient, combining the limitless inventory of the Web with help from knowledgeable sales staff. Some locals aren't buying it. One San Diego shopper points out that you have to pay to park at the mall, which costs more than shipping, "So what's the point?" he writes on the website of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Actually, shipping will cost you, too -- though Walmart will reimburse shoppers for it with gift cards.
Walmart isn't alone in this experiment: This year, Sears (SHLD), Kmart, and eBay (EBAY) have all launched retail experiments that put their websites on sidewalks and in malls. In most cases, smartphones are what connect the cloud with the food court. Sears and Kmart now have "mobile toy walls": interactive ads in airports and subways that display images of products alongside Quick Response codes. The QR codes -- those speckled squares that work like bar codes -- take shoppers to an online checkout when scanned by smart-phones.
Online-only retailer eBay launched a similar experiment back in October with its "Inspiration Shop" on New York City's Park Avenue. The "24/7 shoppable storefront" was designed to turn foot traffic into Web traffic via the eBay app.
'Let the Store Come to the People'
Whether the "stores" will attract shoppers -- or remain clever advertisements -- remains to be seen. So far, some San Diego residents are perplexed by the dainty 3,000-square-foot Walmarts (an average Walmart Supercenter is 185,000 square feet). "This is a stupid idea since anyone could do the same thing using their home computer," Cheryl Clark, a local shopper told the Union-Tribune.
"The Walmart.com stores are just a small test we're conducting during the holiday season to offer local customers easier, more convenient access to products," a Walmart spokesman told Reuters.
Still, similar ventures in other countries have proved successful. Tesco, the supermarket chain, saw its online sales jump 130% when it launched a virtual grocery store in the subways of Seoul, Korea, a venture which inspired Sears and Kmart's mobile walls. There, busy commuters waiting for trains face life-size, hyper-realistic photos of fully stocked grocery aisles. By scanning QR codes, they can purchase items with smartphones and have them automatically delivered.
For Tesco, the walls were a way to "let the store come to the people," increasing market-share without having to open new locations, according to a video produced by Tesco's advertising agency, Cheil Worldwide.
In the U.S., more mobile users use smart phones than in South Korea, and mobile shopping is predicted to bring in $10 billion in sales in 2012, according to Forrester Research. Whether or not Sears' "mobile walls" catch on, they stand to raise awareness about Web offerings from the company, at the very least.
Meanwhile, in its grab for more online shoppers, Walmart has figured out something neither Tesco nor Amazon have -- how to bring the e-commerce experience to the people, even those without smartphones.
Filed under: Technology, Facebook, Banking
The most precious of holiday cards -- the one shaped like a $20 bill, with a peekaboo cutout for the president's face -- may be a thing of the past. Now you can just post a virtual $20 bill on a friend's Facebook wall to say Happy Holidays this year. Or send money to your kids in college -- instantly.In a joint effort with PayPal, the social media giant launched a new app this week called Send Money that could remake the money-transfer business. While a number of so-called peer-to-peer payment systems already exist, the new app offers a seamless money transfer system between Facebook friends -- and captures Facebook's more than 800 million users.
I took the new app for a test drive. On Thursday, I sent my sister $5 to say "Thanks for being a great sibling!" While I have a PayPal login, I don't keep actual funds in a PayPal account, so I used PayPal to make a payment via my credit card.
But if you fund the transfer directly from your bank account, or with money that is kept in a PayPal account it can be sent for free. And PayPal cash can be used for currencies in 65 countries.
The turnaround time beat snail mail by a long shot: After I made the payment, my sister reported getting a link for the gift in less than two minutes. She logged into PayPal, where the prompts directed her to withdraw the money from PayPal and transfer it to her bank account. Recipients can also request a paper check.
One disconcerting part of the payment transfer: The email receipt for my payment showed $5, not the actual $5.45 that was debited from my credit card.
Catherine New can be reached at catherine.new@huffingtonpost.com.

This Black Friday, here are a few things to whet your bargain-hunting "app"-etite: 5 mobile apps designed to help you nab deals during the holiday weekend shopping bonanza.
As early adopters crack open their Kindle Fires this month, the rest of the country is watching. Is Amazon.com's (
President Obama appeared jointly with Australia's prime minister at a press conference Wednesday. Announcing the deployment of 2,500 Marines to Australia, the president said the troops are coming to help "maintain the security architecture in the region."
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